Is Tokyo Getting Hotter?
The numbers don't lie. Tokyo's average temperature is 2.2 degrees higher than it was in the 1900s. That's based on 151 years of station data, carefully homogenised to remove artifacts from equipment changes and station relocations.
What stands out is the pace of change. Most of the warming has been concentrated in the last few decades, with the rate accelerating from the 1980s onward.
Average Annual Temperature by Decade
Tokyo's warming is roughly double the global land average. Some of that extra warming comes from climate change, but a significant portion is the urban heat island effect. As the city expanded throughout the 20th century, natural surfaces were replaced with heat-absorbing materials. Studies by the Japan Meteorological Agency estimate that urbanisation accounts for a substantial share of Tokyo's total warming. Rural stations around the Kanto Plain show significantly less warming over the same period.
Compared to other major world cities, Tokyo's warming is notably above average.
One of the most visible signs of Tokyo's warming is the cherry blossom season. Peak bloom has shifted roughly two weeks earlier since the 1950s, from mid-April to late March. The cherry blossom data is independently maintained and provides a powerful real-world validation of the temperature trend.
Decade by Decade
| Decade | Avg Temp (C) | Change from 1900s |
|---|
How Tokyo Compares Globally
Among the world's major cities, Tokyo's warming rate places it in the upper tier. Here is how Tokyo stacks up against other global cities.
Key Numbers
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About This Data
Temperature data on this page comes from the Global Historical Climatology Network version 4 (GHCN v4), maintained by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. GHCN v4 contains monthly mean temperature data for over 25,000 stations across the globe, with records dating back to the 18th century for some stations. The data has been quality-controlled and homogenised using the Pairwise Homogeneity Algorithm to remove artificial discontinuities from station moves, equipment changes, and observation practice changes.
Tokyo's primary station is Tokyo, with records spanning 1876-2026. The "change" figures compare each decade's average to the 1900s baseline. Note that some of the warming in large cities is attributable to the urban heat island effect rather than regional climate change alone. The figures shown here include both components, as they represent what the city actually experiences.
NASA GISTEMP analysis, which processes GHCN v4 data, is a product of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It is produced as a US Government work and is in the public domain.